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echo: aust_biz
to: Sam Harris
from: Rod Speed
date: 1995-02-18 11:49:18
subject: dow V all ords

SH> while you are picking off one or two mps as examples of how good
SH> they are i'm afraid by default youre ignored the other 99.9999%.

Oh sure, lots of mindless droids.

The most graphic example IMO was the Democrats in the last Federal
election, got decimated in the polls, dont appear to see that that
is any good reason to not exercise the balance of power in the
Senate and bugger up the system and force their wishes on the
legislation, even when they got only tiny support in the electorate.

On the effective politicians tho, I was really just making the point
that simple rules like say only two terms isnt the way to go IMO.
As Graham I think it was pointed out rather succinctly, that sort
of rule would have tossed Button out early and we wouldnt have got
one of the most useful real effective stuff on microeconomic reform.

Or Kennett either for that matter, he would have been out by now.

SH> re law tax cuts the point those of demanding change
SH> (we're as mad as hell and we cant wait for the next fedearl
SH> election, now that the opposition really is in waiting)..

I'm never convinced on this sort of stuff. The way Aust politics works,
people who are steamed up almost never actually get to affect things.
In fact there is a real sense with some politicians that they have the
skill to put up some stuff like that that takes the fire, it like a
lightning rod, and carry on regardless with the fundamental change out
of view as people are distracted by the spectacle. Jeff Kennett is doing
that stuff very effectively right now. People are frothing about Albert
Park and the Casino and stuff and quite massive change is being done to
much of the basics and they are often too preoccupied to notice. Joh
often operated like that too.

SH> should read "those of us demanding change.."

A modern democracy like ours doesnt work like that Sam.

SH> want is a government that will keep its word.

Yes, its very desirable. I just dont believe it that practical tho. Its
just about impossible for anyone to predict the economy very well, and
the consequence of demanding slavish adherence to promises regardless
will just be that you implement what you know damned well is the wrong
thing to do. Like tax cuts right now. Quite mad to ruin the economy on
purpose just because it was a promise and they are held to it.

SH> the fact is keating lied.

I dont believe he did. A lie is knowing damned well at the time that
you say you will have tax cuts that they wont be possible. Those tax
cuts or similar were also proposed by the opposition who ALSO thought
that they would be appropriate. Things changed. The economy picked up
at a rate that surprised everyone. Everyone pissed themselves laughing
at the 14% growth in business investment prediction in the latest budget,
which was a long time after those election promises, and we turned out
to get 24%. Those laughers look a tad foolish now. Thats not the first
time either, thats been going on for a few years now, tho not usually
quite so dramatically. Similar things happened with the very low
inflation. Prediction is a damned hard thing and even Treasury cant do
it very well.

You saw a similar thing with the coalitions proposed sale of Telecom.
its just not possible to predict how things will pan out price wise,
its such a special case, you cant predict the economy in the mean
time etc. Just look at Telecoms profit just announced, $1.7B after
tax profit, double the year before, which itself was double the year
before that, at a time they had their monopoly stripped away and were
forced to charge what appeared to be very cheap rates to Optus. That
stuff just cant be predicted with any accuracy.

SH> you are quibbling about how impossible it is to deliver the tax
SH> cuts now, but he promised them falsely then..that is the point.

Nope, the point is that it wasnt a lie at the time they planned to
have them. Things have changed. It makes absolutely no sense to ruin
the economy on purpose to slavishly adhere to a promise. I'd rather
have a viable economy thanks.

SH> the logical extension of you viewpoint is that all politicians
SH> ipso facto will forevermore be forgiven everything because its
SH> all too hard you cant predict the economy accurately..

Nope, the logical extension of my viewpoint is that when it makes no
sense to slavishly adhere to a promise, you have to change your mind.

The coalition has been doing it like mad for the last few years too.
They promise to drop the assets test, they change their mind. They
promise to drop capital gains tax, they change their mind. They
promise to drop the fringe benefits tax, they change their mind. The
promise drastic cuts, they appear to be about to change their mind
on that too. The promise swingeing cuts in immigration, they change
their mind. Lets not try to pretend that only Keating ever does Sam.

I actually happen to think that most of what the coalition have
changed their mind on makes sense to change too. Lots of it because
the electorate told them in resounding terms in the last federal
election that they thought much of it stank to high heaven. No point
in just adopting the idealog position and accuse the electorate of
being too stupid to understand, you wont get elected that way. Even
tho on quite a bit of stuff the electorate is too stupid to understand.

SH> so what they the politicians create the unreal expectations
SH> and then wonder why they have no credibility?

I think politicians have given up worrying to much about that stuff
Sam. Look at John Howard backpedalling furiously on asian immigration.
He has decided that they wont get elected if he doesnt. He appears to
even be doing it on the monarchy stuff too now. Good thing IMO, the
electorate generally wont wear extreme idealogs. The Aust electorate
almost never have done, they scare them. Rightly too IMO.

SH> come off they are manifestly culpable off with their heads
SH> at the next election i say.

Thats what the electorate largely thought at the last election Sam.
And if Hewson hadnt been such a political naif, and had done what
Kennett did instead, they would have been given the bums rush. Just
like they were in all the southern labor states when they f***d up.
Hewson blew it.

SH> and as for the press and the bureaucrats, why, off with their
SH> heads as well...

And one of the things which has always characterised the Aust
political scene is that we never do get blood on the streets.
There just aint enough anarchists around like you Sam |-)

I'm actually damned glad there aint myself.

--- PQWK202
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