Hi Sam

SH >bob, saw your comments to graham on your top shares. while we all
SH >hope, the  real problem seems to be the all ords in general the
SH >moving  averages there continue to be on a definite downer. whereas 
SH >the dow is on a definite upper and within the last two 
SH >weeks the number of shares closing higher relative to those 
SH >closing lower is marked for the first time in almost a 
SH >year. we on the other hand seem to be going one and a half 
SH >steps back for every pathetic step forward. the only share 
SH >with real balls till yesterday appeared to be cba...regards

We are seeing market behaviour and investor sentiment which is typical 
at the bottom of bear markets (ie conflicting signals and opinions).  
This may go on for a month or so until the latest earnings have been 
digested and the trend of GDP growth and hence interest rates becomes 
more clear.

It is also typical at market bottoms to see a couple of doomsayers 
around.  I saw an ad recently where some guy is flogging the idea that 
we are only half way through the downturn side of a market mega-cycle 
(60 years or some such).  He shows a nice chart going back to 1750 or 
whenever.  We should all be stocking up on tinned food and setting up 
our "survival farms" in the hills, according to these whackos.

There may still be a few "stale bulls" and disillusioned investors to 
shake out of the market, so expect more episodes of one step forward and 
two back.

Don't get hung up too much on the nitty gritty of technical indicators.  
Gut feel and judgement is also pretty important, but you have to stand 
back from the trees a bit to be properly objective.

Rgds

Bob
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