Hello Karl!
 ........Continued
 KL> no evidence that any of the victims had eaten such beef,
Equally, there was no evidence they hadn't.
 KL> but it still seemed a plausible inference, since the brains of those
 KL> who had died from v-CJD exhibited abnormalities similar to those of
 KL> cattle that died from mad cow disease.
True
 KL> But the CJD-mad cow hypothesis turned out to be wrong.
Really? I very much wonder what causes him to say this. Living in Europe, 
where BSE is a much more serious problem than elsewhere, if such proof were 
forthcoming, I would have expected to have heard about it, yet I've heard 
nothing. Don't forget that in the last three months, we've lived through TWO 
general election campaigns, in the UK (>140k cases of BSE) and in France 
(>200 cases) and in neither of these has there been any mention of any report 
proving that the two diseases are not linked. Given that BSE is one of the 
issues which contributed to the Conservative's unpopularity and that it is in 
the UK that BSE is most serious, I would have expected at least the 
Conservatives to have made much of the news, if it were true, yet I've heard 
nothing whatsoever. Not only that, but with a recent meeting of the EU heads, 
I would have expected Tony Blair to have made a monumental fuss to have the 
beef export ban lifted, were such a report to exist.
 KL> We still don't know how humans contract CJD.
That's true, but that's VERY different from the previous sentence in which he 
says "the hypothesis turned out to be wrong". For a hypothesis to be _proven_ 
wrong, you either need proof of an alternative cause, or a proof that there 
is no causative relationship.
 KL> But what is clear is that people don't get it by eating meat from
 KL> cows or lamb.
No, there's no evidence about this. Negative evidence is very bad proof. It 
is based upon the unproven assertion that eating prions causes BSE or CJD. 
While it is true that prions have always been found in cases of scrape, BSE 
or CJD, there is NO evidence of any causal relationship in either direction. 
No one has shown a mechanism whereby prions cause BSE, no one has shown a 
mechanism whereby BSE causes prions, it could perfectly well be the case that 
prions are in themselves perfectly harmless, but a symptom of the disease 
entering a later stage - rotting of the brain. It could be that the causes of 
BSE etc are metabolic, and that they ARE transmissible from cattle to humans 
via muscle tissue, milk, brain tissue or organ meats, we simply don't know. 
It's the same situation as lung cancer and smoking, there is NO proof of a 
causal relationship, although statistically there is good evidence that they 
are linked. I wouldn't want to deny that prions are linked with BSE etc, but 
I defy Dr Ratzan to produce _one shred_ of evidence showing a causative 
relationship in either direction.
 KL> The mad cow protein has only been found in the brains of cattle
 KL> afflicted with the disease, not in muscle tissue.
This is at best a half truth, and worst misleading nonsense. Can he say with 
a good level of certainty that prions don't exist in spinal cord tissue 
(which is after all a continuation of the brain)? Can he say they've never 
been found in intramuscular nerve tissue? How about the lymphatic system, the 
major organs of the body?  The fact is, once again, we don't know. Accepting 
the assertion that prions aren't found in muscle is a VERY long way from 
saying that "people don't get CJD from eating meat". Could he guarantee that 
all meat, meat products and derivatives (gelatine) are entirely free of 
prions (assuming that prions are the vector, which remains unproven)?
 KL> Yet the scare continues, fed by the press.
Well, I'd say that people are right to be scared by a disease whose cause 
isn't known for sure, for which there is no advance test, and for which there 
is no cure. I don't blame people for feeling nervous about such a disease, do 
you? Especially when the role of the press is of its usual lamentable 
standard and does everything it can to inflame public fears.
 KL> this way:  "There is no evidence that anyone in the United States has
 KL> died of the 'mad cow' disease THAT HAS KILLED EIGHT PEOPLE IN BRITAIN,
 KL> the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said today", [emphasis
 KL> added by Mr. Ratzan]  The Times thus confused the two diseases:
Quite agree with Dr Ratzan's criticism. But it is hard to see what to do 
about it. Would he seek to impose the concept of "responsibility of the 
press" which would be in the constitution of the USA along with that of the 
freedom of the press. I'd be in favour, having seen some really absurd 
articles in the US press, "proving" complete with photos, that the Loch Ness 
monster exist, that John Kennedy is still alive, and that a woman had given 
birth to a twin calf headed baby.
 KL> Mad cow disease now joins the Dalkon Shield, electromagnetic fields,
 KL> Alar, breast implants and other spurious health hazards.
But here Dr Ratzan falls into exactly the same trap he criticises the NYT 
for. He wants to calm public fears, so he predicates that because something 
hasn't been proved, it doesn't exist. NYT seeks to oversimplify and misleads 
in doing so. Which is worse, a journalist oversimplifying, or a scientist 
indulging in wishful thinking?
 KL> involved in the business of health must work harder to communicate
 KL> to the public what we really know.
I agree absolutely here, but I don't really think that Dr Ratzan has done so. 
While it's true that nothing has been proved, I don't think that any report 
has been published which _disproves_ any causal relationship between BSE and 
CJD.
 KL> After all, mass hysteria over imagined fears is its own form of
 KL> madness.
And it is probable that more people have died from the _fear_ of contracting 
CFD than from the disease itself. I have to say that I continue to eat beef 
and beef products with complete equanimity. Two main reasons. Where I live, 
there hasn't been a case of BSE within 100 miles, cattle being fed on grass 
here, and not on protein supplements. Secondly, we have to die in one way or 
another and although CJD is _not_ a pleasant way to go, we haven't enough 
evidence either way to make an informed judgement, and in the meantime, I'm 
not prepared to forego the pleasure of eating beef, "just in case". But I 
also eat uncooked egg yolks and cream and butter.
All the Best
Ian
--- GoldED 2.50+
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