PK> Yes Bob, perhaps.

No perhaps about it, Bobs was the most succinct summary of the problem
I have seen in quite some time. We just just dont know how to avoid
swings in the economy yet, tho we are certainly doing rather better
than we used to. You may have noticed that the recent stock market
crash etc didnt generate a Great Depression. Many people dont realise
that those of that scale were quite common last century. We are definitely
getting better at avoiding them. And we have far better social safety nets
too so your kids wont be starving if they do happen either.

Which interestingly some of the other authors of those 'catastrophe
is just around the corner' type books just cant seem to grasp either.

PK> But the writer of The Recovery Myth, unlike most economists,
PK> has a good track record.  He wrote a submission to EPAC dated
PK> 1-5-84 to the 1985 National Tax Summit saying that the property
PK> boom would burst by 1991 and bring about major world wide recession.

That sounds like a tad of rewriting history. There was no property boom
visible in 84. Or are you seriously suggesting that in 84 he actually
predicted the 87 stock market crash, the following property boom and
crash ?  Presumably not since you didnt mention the 87 stock market
crash. If he has such a good track record, how come he missed that ?

PK> It's in black and white - although probably mouldering in
PK> some dusty EPAC pigeon hole. Was it just a lucky guess?

I'd be more interested in comparing his entire collection of
predictions against what actually happened years later and see
how many he got right. And since he didnt presumably predict the 87
stock market crash, yes, more luck that any brilliant futurologist IMO.

It really is quite striking to look at even grosser predictions made
in the past, starting with say Malthus. Every single one has been wrong,
without exception. Right thru to the wild claims after the war of mass
famine, Urlichs stuff, Club of Rome etc etc. Often quite spectacularly
wrong too.

--- PQWK202