TIP: Click on subject to list as thread! ANSI
echo: aust_biz
to: Paul Kavanagh
from: Rod Speed
date: 1995-03-04 10:26:12
subject: Recessions are Unnecessar

PK> "Maybe you would like to explain why no country has ever managed
PK> to avoid economic cycles ... " Gee Rod, you have a really creative
PK> streak, haven't you?  I'll bet I konw what you would have told
PK> Orville and Wilbur ... or William Wilburforce.

Engineering aint economics Paul. Its very very simple to see that the
predictive capability of economists is dismal. You only have to look
at the last budget. Treasure predicted business investment growth of
14%. Everyone pissed themselves laughing at that. It actually got 24%
Maybe you would care to explain just how you do adjust the economic
levers to ensure no cycles when you cant even predict stuff like that
even for 1 year ahead.

All YOU have done is say that cycles are undesirable. Sure, thats obvious.
BUT just not liking them aint the same as knowing how to stop what you
dont like happening Paul.

PK> "Utterly confusing what's desirable [at least there's an admission!]

Yes, and its not an admission, its perfectly obvious to anyone
that it would be nice if we didnt have economic cycles.

PK> with what's possible." Your conclusion, ergo, that even though
PK> recession are patently man-made, it is not possible to stop them.

Nope, my conclusion is that economic cycles are seen because they
are in essence the nett result of a wide variety of factors at work.
And just because man is involved, doesnt mean that you must be able
to control that. No one has actually invented a way to do it. The
last claim for that, communism and a centrally planned economy looked
sort of plausible when you read the books written by the evangelists.
Turned out they were having a brain fart and it doesnt work like they
claimed it does. The same is true of this book you are claiming is
the salvation of us all, it doesnt either.

PK> Arrant nonsense!

We'll see.

PK> Now, listen up!  It really is simple:

Thats what they all claim Paul. Maybe you should contemplate why if
it really is that simple, we have been doing it for hundreds of years
now, and we have never actually been able to stumble across it.

PK> Economic recession and depression is characterised by involuntary
PK> unemployment.

Yes.

PK> If people do want to work and can't, what stops them? Can't they
PK> just go and do something?  No.  Most of them can't.  They need access
PK> to resources such as a shop, a factory, an office or equipment.

Well, thats a pretty simplistic analysis.

PK> As early as the 1890s depression Banjo Patterson noted that
PK> the "locking up" of Australia was no complete - due to those
PK> who monopolised access to resources.

Yes, thats often been the claim. The Marxists made similar claims,
theirs have been clearly demonstrated now to have been tripe.

PK> Earlier, Thomas Carlyle agreed.  He said that economics would
PK> forever remain "the dismal science" unless we taxed those who
PK> held the resources of the world to the exclusion of others.

And the extreme examples of socialist countrys who did just that shows
that thats far far too simplistic. THEY still ended up with economic
cycles even when they did that. QED, nice theory, pity about the reality.

PK> He said we needed revenue from a levy upon land, instead of upon
PK> the incomes and products of those who tried to work for a living.

Corse there is the tiny matter that in a modern industrialised
and even tertiary economy, thats all more than a tad irrelevant
now. Singapore manages fine without that for example. Funny that,
another simplistic economic theory going up in flames.

PK> But you see, Rod, economists are always employed by people
PK> or institutions who would have a lot to lose in a truly free
PK> (not monopoly) enterprise system.

Now we get into conspiracy theorys. Wondered how long that would take.

PK> Adam Smith exemplifies this. He greatly admired the French
PK> physiocrats, but backslid on their "impote unique" because
PK> it would have affronted those who ran his uni back at home.

Pity that theory doesnt explain say Keynes tho.

PK> A couple of years ago Professor Mason Gaffney, a world resource
PK> rent expert, was threatened with expulsion if he continued to
PK> advocate that resource rents should progressively be used to
PK> replace taxes on productivity. He was saved by his students.

Gets sillier by the minute. A couple of examples of that happening
doesnt prove that it ALWAYS happens Paul. Now explain Marx for example.
Another silly theory going up in flames.

PK> So much for academic freedom - and why certain things are
PK> NOT ALLOWED to be tried!

Nope, its just the usual silly conspiracy theory nonsense like the claim
that GM buys up any brilliant low energy inventions and burns the plans.

PK> I could supply quotes from 100 famous people - Thomas Paine,
PK> Jefferson, Lincoln, Einstein, Tolstoy, who all said that we
PK> needed revenue from resources instead of taxes upon production.

Doesnt mean that its actually right tho. I could supply quotes from 100
famous people that the problem with the worlds economics is that its run
by jews and that we only have to get rid of the jews and the problem of
economic cycles would be fixed. Real life is a tad more complex than that.

PK> But we wombats go along saying that if it worked, it would have been
PK> tried.

Nope, we say that things are often tried, like communism, and they dont
work. Ditto nationalisation of industrys. Different matter entirely.

PK> We remain dupes and victims of recessions and a taxation system
PK> that takes from the poor and middle class and distributes liberally
PK> to the super rich.

Thats complete crap too. The most socialist countrys of western europe
did quite the reverse, they still had economic cycles, QED, other silly
theory going up in flames when tried.

Most of the communist countrys actually just seized all the assets of
the super rich and often killed them too. It didnt fix the problem and
they mostly ended up with rooted economys. QED, another silly economic
theory going up in flames when tried.

PK> And you say, Rod, that the next depression will be relatively mild?
PK> Want a bet?

Yep. We have just been thru it Paul. It was heaps milder than the 29 crash.
Didnt you notice ?

--- PQWK202
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