Greenspan testified to the Senate Banking Committee today.  The text of
his speech was released to the wires at 2:30, and there was an immediate
reaction in the markets.  The S&P500 dropped 5pts, after a previously
positive day.  Prices recovered by the close.  Volume increased to +9%
above average.

Once again, I think that's revealing.  The Street's initial response was
to run for cover.  They're spooky.  That's likely how they'll respond
until something really significant happens to change their outlook.  So
like I've been saying, I don't think this is a time for taking any risks
in the market.  Just be conservative, that's with a SMALL "c".

We're hanging right around that 200-day moving average, let's hope that
continues.  But we're also in the middle of the declining trading range,
and I'm not sure yet just which one the Street's technicians are
watching.  Too many indications of weakness in the market just might
create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _>__      _|__      __     07/14
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __|_      __|_      ___|     07/15
 ___      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/16
 ___      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/19
 __|_      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

                                                           




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Growing old is mandatory; growing up is optional
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