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4500 - 5300 metric tons. "20
Under these circumstances, with no end in sight, the DEA still
maintains that:
"the program is working.  We are doing a measurable good job in
most of the states.  With continued dedication, next year we can plan to
strike even harder and keep even more of the marijuana from reaching the
market."21
12)  DEA estimates of domestic marijuana crop
The DEA does not have a good track record in estimating the size of
marijuana crops.  "Tip of the iceberg" anecdotes are common, suggesting
that any estimate offered by the DEA be increased several fold.
The DEA method for estimating domestic marijuana production was
first stated in regard to the tip of the iceberg story which began this
report.
"Using a relatively accurate plant count and conservative weight
per plant factors, it is estimated that 1653 metric tons of marketable
marihuana were eradicated.  The strategic intelligence estimate for 1981
domestic marihuana production was 1200 metric tons.  Therefore, the
program shows that in 1982, 38% more domestic marihuana was eradicated
than was previously believed to exist.  Although a total U.S. marihuana
production figure is not easily determined, the statistics obtained from
this program reveal, without doubt, that the United States is becoming a
major source for the drug."22
They also explicitly listed the plant yield criteria they
attributed to current cultivation.
"To arrive at an estimated weight of marketable marihuana for that
which was eradicated, the following factors are used:  One sinsemilla
plant yields two pounds of marketable material; one regular marihuana
plant yields one pound of marihuana.  These factors are considered
conservative."23
The DEA regularly prints a disclaimer in its reports suggesting
that such estimating was only acceptable when the DEA itself engages in
it.  "It should be noted that the total figure of sightings in this
report by no means represents the total number of plots under
cultivation in the United States and no attempt should be made to
correlate the two." 24  A revised comment shows up in every subsequent
report.
However, consider this:
"In 1989, 5, 605,460 marijuana plants weighing approximately 2,548
metric tons (MT), were eradicated.  DEA estimates that 50% of the
domestic marijuana is being eradicated.  This would indicate that
approximately 5,096 MT of marijuana was cultivated in the United States
in 1989."25  This is making a correlation between the number of plants
seized and the total number of plants grown in the United States.
Furthermore, the statement is an outright falsehood.  In every
other context except this specific report, the DEA domestic estimate is
expressed as a net figure, what was not seized.  In this context, they
present the figure as a gross figure.  This incorrectly minimizes the
size of the market in comparison to other years.  The NNICC report for
1989 tactfully ignores this slight of hand, and publishes a net figure
of 5000 to 6000 metric tons.26   This indicates that they hold that
roughly 8000 metric tons were grown, the DEA eradicated 2500 mt, and
5500 mt was harvested.  This places the DEA's seizure percentage at
about 30% of the crop, not the 50% they claim in their own report.
Perhaps they made a mistake, and it is only a coincidence that it is
so self-serving.
A recent report by a DEA agent in California calculates the value
of cannabis in California assuming that they only seize 10% of the
actual crop.27
The DEA's ability to seize a large percentage of the marijuana
grown in the U.S. was called into question above.  Their estimates of
U.S. production are called into question here.
In the mid 1980s the DEA maintained that U.S. production was only
12% of the country's consumption.
"Anecdotal evidence suggests that the 12% estimate may be low.
Projections made by a senior U.S. Forest Service official indicate that
domestic production could be about 50% of U.S. supply.  In addition,
the Oregon Deputy Attorney General, in testimony before the House Select
Committee on Narcotics Abuse and Control, stated that the correct figure
"may be as high as 50%."  During the interviews conducted. . .officials
offered estimates ranging from 30% to 60%.  It is important to emphasize
that these high estimates are impressions rather than conclusions based
on firm data."28
When the DEA estimated that domestic cultivation provided 12% of
U.S. consumption in 1984, they estimated production at 2100 metric tons.
In 1984 the  Mexican police raided five separate large scale growing
sites in Mexico belonging to a consortium reputedly led by Caro
Quintero.  They seized over 2000 metric tons of marijuana, "8 times
more marijuana than Mexican and American authorities at the time
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