>>> Part 4 of 8...
assumption of 1 pound/plant really skews the estimate upward.  After the
model produced the $42 billion figure, I revised it to reflect more
realistic assumptions.  (And yes, the DEA has clung to such a estimate
for years, and used it to skew estimated production from cultivation
busts to ridiculously high figures.)
DEA no longer makes such an estimate, and for that matter neither do I.
At this point it is safe to say that the domestic marijuana crop can
neither be estimated nor eradicated.
Jon
Date: Tue, 30 Jul 1996 09:05:01 -0400
From: Gettman_J@mediasoft.net (Jon Gettman)
Subject: Re: More on crop estimation
Excerpts from "Cannabis Suppression and Marijuana Crop Value" by
Jon Gettman
Note:  this excerpt refers to exhibits from the full report; those
exhibits have not been included.
11) Self Evaluation by the DEA
The DEA thinks that if they go out and seize millions of marijuana
plants, they're doing a good job.  Every year the program is a success,
often because their self-created indicators have gone up - more plants,
more grow rooms, more seizures, etc.  For example:
"The increase in the number of plots and plants eradicated during
1985 is attributable to an increase in eradication efforts
(manpower/financial) and refined reporting procedures as well an
increase in public awareness and public participation in the overall
drug abuse prevention program." 1
At this time the NDEPB was warning of the dangers in getting caught
up in too zealous of a prosecution policy, a warning that was to be
ignored.  "The systematic destruction of illegal plots requires an
extensive commitment of manpower, which cannot be siphoned off by futile
attempts to determine the ownership of each plot."2 They provided a 20
point prescription for greater program success:
"1)  look for large organizations
2)  target significant states
3)  keep 50 state program
4)  make the locals get the ditchweed
5)  upgrade intelligence
6)  increase aviation
7)  states should pick up surplus DoD equipment
8)  encourage states to use more small aircraft
9)  encourage growers to inform on patch pirates and violent growers
10)  enhance prosecutions
11)  increase penalties for cultivation over 100 plants
12)  exempt from liability from loaned DoD equipment unless grossly
     negligent
13)  DEA staff get less brownie points for cannabis eradication -
     change that
14)  standardize sentencing
15)  improve inter-agency cooperation
16)  expand training program
17)  prevent leaks like the Delta 9 leaks in August 85
18)  build public support with PR
19)  invite foreign media to view eradication efforts
20)  use herbicides, if they can"3
The DEA incorporated most of these points into their activities in
subsequent years, except they zealously included increasing prosecutions
and asset forfeiture.  They still measured success by increasing
indicators, such as:
"In 1987 we had an increase . . . in the number of sinsemilla
plants that were destroyed . . .in the number of cultivated plants
eradicated. . . (and) in the total number of arrests, greenhouses
operations, weapons and assets seized. . . . The overall 1987 Domestic
Eradication Program was a great success.  In 1988 we will strive for
increased follow-up investigations and to increase the value of assets
seized."4
While the DEA portrays their work with a sense of pride and
accomplishment, every now and then they publish comments that indicate
the enormity of the task before the cannabis eradication program and the
inadequacy of their efforts.  For example:  "Also there were not enough
resources available to eradicate all the marijuana plants that were
located." 5  In 1988 they admitted that "More fields were located
through citizen complaints than by random aerial searches,"6 bringing
into question the cost effectiveness of aerial searches, despite the
strategic reliance on helicopter and fixed wing flights.
The DEA has continually had problems with the physical eradication
of discovered marijuana.
"The manpower required to accomplish the physical destruction of
cannabis plots continues to hamper DEA's eradication efforts.  The
expansion of intelligence gathering and labor-intensive eradication
efforts are essential for minimizing the availability of domestically
 >>> Continued to next message...
___
 X Blue Wave/DOS v2.30 X
--- Maximus 3.01
---------------