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actually near the high end of that estimate. Although Portland NORML
does not have the source documents, _California Lawyer_ in September
1994 cited DEA figures "reveal[ing] that domestic pot production is
worth $42 billion yearly. According to DEA estimates ... America's
consumers spend more green on smoke than on the silver screen: Pot's
contribution to the gross national product dwarfs the motion picture
industry's 1992 receipts of $26 billion and the television industry's
paltry $18 billion.
In summary, even though the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
suggests that marijuana use declined steadily after 1979, supposedly
reaching a post-Vietnam-era low in 1992, the government's own figures
strongly imply that domestic production of marijuana rose in that
period, more than doubling in estimated value from $18.6 billion just
in 1985 to somewhere between $37.3 billion and $43 billion as long ago
as 1992. Even after discounting inflation and population increases, the
available evidence and the overall trend suggest that despite (or
perhaps because of) unprecedented arrests, incarcerations and "just say
no" campaigns, marijuana has become even more entrenched as America's
No. 1 crop.
If one assumes a 100 percent increase in the value of domestic
marijuana production between 1985 and 1992, it would seem reasonable to
infer that the 1992 value of Oregon's harvest increased to between
$2 billion and $2.3 billion, from $1 billion to $1.15 billion in 1985.
Since 1992, there is little reason to think the value of domestically
grown marijuana has declined, either in Oregon or the nation at large.
An upward trend from the 1980s to 1992 in estimated values of domestic
harvests is acknowledged by everyone from the DEA to High Times.
Population has increased, particularly in Oregon, and there have been
widespread reports that marijauna use has increased since 1992.
If one accounts for the federal government's widely noted tendency
to underestimate illicit-drug figures, the actual numbers are likely
to be greater - possibly far greater - rather than less.
Unfortunately, neither the NORML nor government documents at hand
attempt to estimate the number of Americans who cultivate marijuana.
Selective Prosecution in the Five-County Portland Area
"In 1993, drug law enforcement officials seized 3,347 indoor grow
operations, down from 3,849 seized in 1992. Indoor cultivation sites
were seized in all 50 states, though operations in California, Florida,
Illinois, Oregon and Washington accounted for 40 percent of the indoor
cultivation sites seized nationwide. -- "Production," p. 63, "Marijuana
Information Packet," Drugs & Crime Data, April 1995, Office of National
Drug Control Policy, Drugs & Crime Clearinghouse, 1-800-666-3332,
quoting from the National Narcotics Intelligence Consumers Committee,
The NNICC Report 1993, The Supply of Illicit Drugs to the United
States, August 1994."
According to the 1995 Annual Report issued by the Portland Police
Drugs and Vice Division, the local Marijuana Task Force made 302
arrests and shut down 216 grow operations from its inception on Feb.
28, 1995 through an unspecified date in early 1996. That means the
particular Marijuana Task Force which covers Multnomah, Washington,
Clackamas, Clark and Skamania counties (there is at least one other
task force that covers just Clark and Skamania counties) recently
accounted for 6.45 percent of all the grow operations in the United
States that were busted just two years earlier (216 of 3,347).
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the total population of the five
counties in 1995 was 1,605,650. The total population of the United
States in the same period was about 263 million. What that means is,
unless arrest patterns changed significantly in two years, about
6.45 percent of all the busts are taking place among about .6 percent
of the population (six-tenths of one percent).
Additional information on the methodological problems
involved in DEA estimates of domestic marijuana cultivation,
from Jon Gettman
From: Gettman_J@mediasoft.net (Jon Gettman)
Subject: Re: $42 billion figure
Date: Sun, 28 Jul 1996 22:16:24 -0400
I can speak to any details of any NORML report on domestic marijuana
cultivation from 1986 on because I did them all.  The last one I did
was in 1993, and I reviewed the domestic cannabis eradication program
from 1982 to 1992.  With each report, I tried to improve the estimation
method used.  The $42 billion figure comes from an estimation model
which was subsequently improved.  The last report, released in 1993,
is the one I think is most accurate.
However, I think an estimate of $10 to $20 billion is more realistic,
and the range depends on whether one takes a conservative or generous
view of the assumptions implicit in making such an estimate.
The DEA would eradicate a particular amount of marijuana in a year, and
then claim they eradicated x% of the crop.  I would look at the data
and make my own guess that they were being too optimistic, and that they
eradicated y% of the crop.  Plug in assumptions about average yeild per
plant, market value, and some other factors, and one can convert %
eradicated into value of crop harvested.  In this type of model, the DEA
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