mcculloch@mail.utexas.edu (Jim McCulloch) wrote:

>In article , "Jerry Peacock"
> wrote:
>
>> Jim McCulloch wrote in message ...
>> >In article , Mike Haas
>> > wrote:
>> 
>> >Hmm.  Let's see.  The Austin metropolitan area, as of this morning,
>> >contains about 1/254 of the US population.  Mr. Hass is therefore asking
>> >us to believe,  based on "independent research by criminologist Gary
>> >Kleck", that in the first twelve hours of the new year here is Austin,
>> >approximately 14 crimes were averted by citizen ownership of firearms.
>> >
>> >It seems to me that this supposed statistic would test the credulity even
>> >of the truest of true believers.  But, alas, I have to say I would put my
>> >money on the credulity of the
>> 
>> Sounds about right to me.
>
>I figured it would sound about right to you. Inasmuch as Kleck's figures
>are wrong by a factor of 30, if we take the NCVS statistics as our guide,
>we can assign you the full NRA credulity ranking of 30.  Most of the
>readers of tx.guns, at least, will probably score higher than that.

You believe the NCVS WAGs???  Why?   They are based on responses from
45,400 households and about 94,000 individuals age 12 and over(1).  This
guesstimate is out of step with at least 13 other surveys including a
DoJ study done by Cook & Ludwig.  Even Cook & Ludwig admits that the
NCVS is set up so that most respondents are never given an opportunity
to respond to DGUs.

1.  NCJ-165812, Nov 1997, page 9.


Sam A. Kersh
NRA Life Member
LEAA Life
TSRA L-111738
JPFO
Training is Sergeant's Business
http://www.flash.net/~csmkersh/
===============================================================
talk.politics.guns' resident hypocrite admits to using a gun 
by proxy

     "So for me and my family, all we need for protection
against crime is some basic knowledge of where not to
travel, and how to travel there if we have to.  For
instance, I've had to go into the Cabrini and Taylor Homes
in Chicago a number of times, but because they are
high-crime areas, I go in daylight, to meet someone I know,
with a bodyguard."

Robert L. Ray aka kira@interaccess.com