Today was a quadruple "Witching Day", when options and futures contracts
expire.  Usually that contributes to a high-volume, high-volatility day.
But not always, and sometimes that can be very revealing.  Last quarter
it went by as just another regular day in the market.  I think it played
a role in today's action, so consider my analysis in light of that.

The market opened lower, but immediately staged a rally on good volume.
But it was all over in an hour, and prices slowly sagged until late
afternoon when there was a short sharp correction, with another quick
spike in volume.  In the end, prices were uninspiring, and volume was
+11% higher than average.

I think the whole story of today's action was the "witching day".  My
guess is the initial rally was Bears covering their shorts, and not
having any choice but to pay up for their pessimism.  But that done,
there was no continuing interest in buying stock with abandon.

Everything I've been seeing seems to reinforce my "grumpy" attitude of
the past few months.  Sometimes I seem to be able to get in the swing
with the market, and sometimes its behavior is just baffling.  This year
I usually seem to be in the swing.  The problem is that when we think
we've got it nailed, it changes its mood.  Successful tactical rules
have to protect us from getting hung out to dry when that happens, i.e.
when we think it's time to "double down" for a killing it's time to sell
half instead, so we aren't the ones getting killed.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __      __>_      __     06/14
 ___     06/15
 __|_      __|_      __|_      __     06/16
 _|__      ___     06/17
 __>_      ___      ___      __>_     06/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

                                                           




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Rogers' Third Law: There's no such thing as teaching, only learning.
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