mcculloch@mail.utexas.edu (Jim McCulloch) wrote:

>In article , "John M. Wildenthal"
> wrote:
>
>> Jim McCulloch wrote:
>> 
>> > In article , "Jerry Peacock"
>> >  wrote:
>
>> >
>> > I figured it would sound about right to you. Inasmuch as Kleck's figures
>> > are wrong by a factor of 30, if we take the NCVS statistics as our guide,
>> > we can assign you the full NRA credulity ranking of 30.  Most of the
>> > readers of tx.guns, at least, will probably score higher than that.
>> 
>> But Jim, the NCVS wasn't designed to properly estimate defensive firearm use.
>
>Really? That would be news to the NCVS's statisticians. They need to know
>this. Perhaps you should write and tell them.
>

Jim, it would really be nice if you knew what you are talking about
here.  It would also be a first.  Check the DoJ pamphlet NCJ-165476, May
1997, by Cook and Ludwig (anti-gun nuts like you) who wrote the
following:


	"The key explanation for the difference between the
	108,000 NCVS estimate for the annual number of DGUs
	and the several million from the surveys discussed
	earlier is that NCVS avoids the false-positive
	problem by limiting DGU questions to persons who
	first reported that they were crime victims. Most
	NCVS respondents never have a chance to answer the
	DGU question, falsely or otherwise."

And this same publication estimates there are between 1.5 and 4.7
million DGUs each year, not the SWAG of 108,000 from NCVS.


Sam A. Kersh
NRA Life Member
LEAA Life
TSRA L-111738
JPFO
Training is Sergeant's Business
http://www.flash.net/~csmkersh/
===============================================================
talk.politics.guns' resident hypocrite admits to using a gun 
by proxy

     "So for me and my family, all we need for protection
against crime is some basic knowledge of where not to
travel, and how to travel there if we have to.  For
instance, I've had to go into the Cabrini and Taylor Homes
in Chicago a number of times, but because they are
high-crime areas, I go in daylight, to meet someone I know,
with a bodyguard."

Robert L. Ray aka kira@interaccess.com