Looks like we're heading for a re-test of recent lows.  About 6 weeks
ago I suggested that after October's low a correction back to 850 or so
wouldn't be surprizing.

I see a lot of talk that the Iraq situation is scaring the Market.
You'll notice, I've avoided such speculation.  I'm trying to look at
what the Market is DOING.

I think a lot of that comes from a vain hope that somebody, somehow can
bring us certainty.  We want to know "Why?"  My answer to that has been
the same for a LONG TIME--we're waiting for the economy to recover and
start working again.  That's it, now you've got an answer that covers a
period of several months to a year or more.  End of story.  Nobody's
satisfied with that.  They keep asking.  In the short-term, the Market
is very unpredictable.  Just watch, you can't explain it all.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      <___      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/13
 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/16
 _|__      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___|     12/17
 _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __|_     12/18
 _|__      _|__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __|_     12/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  12/16/02 S&P:    891
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -19

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

                                                   




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