-=> Quoting Mike Angwin to Walter Luffman <=-
 MA> Breakthrough campains at a state level, especially when
 MA> personalities have distinguished themselves in other fields, such as
 MA> Thompson, Reagan, and Glenn demonstrated, are still possible. 
Yes, Mike, and I think some political experience at these
levels -- and even the state and local governments -- is
important for anyone who aspires to the highest national
offices.  I just don't want politicians who "homestead" in
one office for decades at a time, or anyone who spends an
entire working life as a politician.
 MA> Breakthrough campaigns at a national level, however, are rare.
 MA> Eisenhower did this and it remains possible that Powell could, but
 MA> such exceptions are the exception rather than the rule.  Forbes, in a
 MA> way, falls into this catagory as would have Buchannan, Perot, and Keyes
 MA> had they been sucessful.  
In all honesty, Ike was a politician-of-sorts when he was
in the Army; it goes with every position of power, including
in business, and is a good way for aspiring "real"
politicians to learn how to get things done without ruffling
feathers unnecessarily.  (I'm not opposed to ruffling
feathers when it _is_ necessary.)  Same goes for the other
names you mentioned, although Powell is probably the most
accomplished at it.  
 MA> It's awful hard for an outsider to crack the very carefully
 MA> constructed nut political insiders have created to preserve their own
 MA> favorable position to seek higher office.  It can happen, but remains
 MA> highly unlikely.
Incumbent Senators have a built-in advantage, since their
six-year terms sometimes allow them to run for the
presidency without having to simultaneously defend their
current office.  Governors who are elected in "off" years
also have this advantage -- Clinton in 1992, for instance.
This makes it extra-tough for outsiders to get anywhere,
since even an unsuccessful presidential candidate will
usually retain all his/her popularity back home and will,
in fact, often enjoy an increase in popularity.  
 MA> Actually I agree with you.  I still don't believe Forbes will
 MA> win the nomination, but I would be willing to place my money on him
 MA> comming out a strong second behind Bush.
Perhaps in such a case he'd be willing to take the VP slot.
After all, Bush's dad did exactly that and it worked out
pretty well for him.  The Vice-President's job has become
much more important over the past twenty years or so, and
a wise leader always wants an intelligent, capable
second-in-command.  Wonder how Bush and Forbes would get
along?
 MA> comming out a strong second behind Bush.  He simply seems to lack
 MA> something when he talks to people.  I get a sense of lack of depth of
 MA> conviction and can't remember him altering the 12 sentences he repeats
 MA> over and over again since he entered the nomination process three years
He isn't a polished speechmaker or ad-libber...but maybe
that isn't such a bad thing.  I seem to recall reading
somewhere that Abe Lincoln wasn't much of a public speaker
early in his political career.  The country, myself
included, pays too much attention to what people say (and
how they say it) rather than what they actually do (or
intend to do).  
 MA> ago.  His money, no doubt, will be a factor, but not enough to win.  He
 MA> may have an outside shot at the vice-presidental nomination though.  A
 MA> Bush-Forbes ticket does offer a degree of regional balance.
How about that -- I agreed with you before I realized you
had already expressed the same thought!  I hadn't
considered the regional-balance angle, though.
 MA> Gore and Gephardt may not make the final cut.  Democrats have
 MA> a habit of pulling a rabbit out of the hat and nominating people noone
 MA> considered ahead of time.  Carter, Dukakis, and Clinton all came out
Good point, worth bearing in mind.  Clinton, especially,
surprised me...but maybe that's because I live in the
state next-door to him, and never saw anything about his
governance that made me give him a second thought.
 MA> They tend to have a more open nomination process than
 MA> Republicans traditionally have and it is therefore far less
 MA> predictable.  At this point I would be reluctant to suggest who the
 MA> Democratic nominee will be, but, I would be willing to wager Gore will
 MA> not be on the ticket.
He's the frontrunner today...but anything can happen
between now and the conventions, especially with all the
questions of illegality surrounding the White House.  His
hands may not be quite as dirty as Clinton's, but I doubt
they're completely clean either.
 MA> I wish "electable" candidates would be remotely representative
 MA> of my views.  I'm always left with a "killer" issue or two by all major
 MA> contenders that leave me unable to vote for them. 
I figure if I can't elect someone who's to my liking, at
least I can work to keep the most despicable of those
with a chance from getting elected.  It isn't how I'd
prefer to do it, but by the general election it's often
the best choice that's available to me.
Walter, Forked Deer River Ilks
wluffman@usit.net
... The President of the United States is our employee. - PJ O'Rourke
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