ACUS03 KWNS 160751
SWODY3
SPC AC 160750

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on
Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low.

...Southeast...

A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across
the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough
extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly
low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an
eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make
it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of
low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool
temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However,
modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500
J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential.
However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction
with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could
produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2025

$$

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