SH> well, for a year now market monitors and other assorted "experts have
SH> been telling us mugs that what was happening locally was essentially
SH> global trends etc etc so why is the dow within 40 points of its all
SH> time high despite the mexico glitch and why is the all ords
SH> floundering in areas that haven't been visited for 15-17 months.
SH> the answer obviously isnt global trends its the bloody government
SH> with its botchinh efforts and lost opportunities.

Its actually rather more than a tad more complicated than that. Doesnt
explain how we have just seen growth of business investment growth at
twice what Treasury predicted, at a quite phenomenal rate of 24% for example.

And what people howl about as the deficiencys of our local government,
the USians howl even louder about theirs. Howl so loudly they even went
to the unprecedented step of putting the Republicans back in power in
their Congress for the first time 40 years too.

SH> every investor just loves a government that raises taxes so it
SH> can spend more.

They are actually talking about cutting government spending and aiming
at a balanced budget two years earlier than they previous had. AND they
actually managed a budget surplus for a few years before the recent
recession, more than the other crowd had managed for decades too.

SH> while i've been rather sceptical of john howard being able make
SH> the grade i aint so sure he cant anymore.

OTOH its more of the usual question, if the buggers cant even manage
to do something relatively simple like run a party and get the leadership
stable and get the policy stuff done, how they hell would they be able to
actually run a country instead ?

In the time since say a year or so before the last federal election
we have actually seen an utter series of absolute fiascos and total
shambles the likes of which we have never ever seen in Aust history
as far as an effective opposition is concerned. Put in a rabid idealog
who had no chance of appealing to the electorate, allow him to do the
most insane stuff like propose a GST from opposition, something NO
other political party has EVER done in the whole history of the world
as far as I know, and get the inevitable result at the ballot box.
Deliver an absolute raft of changes, many of which were quite poorly
thought thru in detail and looked bad when discussed in an election
campaign and succeed in giving the bulk of the electorate total brain
fade when they tried to grasp just what was being proposed. They took
the natural way out, decided it was too complicated for them to ever
understand, went for safety, said NO and Hewson managed to lose the
unlosable election with the government comprehensively on the nose.

Kennett did the the right way, make it quite clear that there were
going to be sweeping changes, not say too much about the fine detail,
particularly not spell out all the nasty bits. Get elected coz the
government stank to high heaven, make the changes that he made no
secret were planned.

The Federal Libs couldnt even managed to chuck Hewson in the bin for
far too long. Put a child in his place, saw the inevitable happen,
the poor kid was in over his head and proceeded to drown on public
TV with everyone watching. So the have to resort to an already failed
twice leader again. Atleast as Mike Seccombe said, Downer did actually
manage to get one thing done right, hand over the reins without having
a total bloodbath in the process.

With that sort of record and the bun fights about the Republic and
the fiascos with Bronwen etc, I doubt too many of the public really
do think they are even worth considering. They've got buckleys of
winning the next election unless the current government manages to
completely root the economy all over again.

And Costello is no help, he wouldnt know anything about economics
if it bit him on the bum. He just comes over as a nark on TV as
each economic result is announced. Quite pathetic.

SH> maybe its time for a contract with australia type government
SH> sea(?) change.

I doubt it. There is a sense in which thats precisely what Hewson
attempted, a massive raft of change that only succeeded in scaring
the electorate witless. And the economy is nothing like in the state
it was in the runup the last federal election now either. In fact
half the problem is that its revving up too fast and scaring the
economists on the inflation and boom and bust stuff all over again.

SH> coz the all ords sure as hell dont care for our fundementals
SH> at the moment..

I'm not convinced on that myself. You can argue that what we have
seen is the traditional response to interest rates, particularly
the long term rates. The 10 year bond rate has come close to doubling
in that period, say thru 94. The traditional response from the stock
market is to decline as the yields look poor compared with the long
bond rate which at its current rates is as secure an investment as
you are ever likely to see any time soon. Very high real rates too
since the inflation rate is so low. That has to have an effect on
stock market prices.

The media never really did notice the blood bath in the bond market
in 94 either. In many ways it was actually worse than that 87 stock
market crash. The damage that did to investor confidence, particularly
the naive investors in various investment and super funds. And many
of those are only just starting to realise whats happened to their
fund too in the last year.

SH> what say you cyberspace pundits, i've definitely given up on
SH> the worlds greatest treasurer et al ....

The bulk of those making choices which are reflected in the economy
taking off tho clearly havent.

--- PQWK202