ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and
evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern
California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest
shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent
and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm
potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous
forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result
in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the
Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong
upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability.
Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may
produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail
and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak
instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm
potential.

$$

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