ACUS48 KWNS 020918
SWOD48
SPC AC 020916

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX
Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely
reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated
surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an
attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS
Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will
precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy
despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates.

Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some
potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well.
Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm
sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to
support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt).
General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving
convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold
front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal
to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850
mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded
circulations as well.

Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on
D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited
low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe
thunderstorm threat.

From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are
expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 01/02/2025

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