ACUS48 KWNS 010940
SWOD48
SPC AC 010939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the western Great
Basin through the central Rockies and into central/southern Plains
on D4/Saturday, continuing eastward across the Mid/Lower MS Valley
on D5/Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave
over the southern High Plains on D4/Saturday, with the resulting low
tracking eastward across OK. Strengthening low-level southerly flow
ahead of this low will result in moderate moisture advection, with a
warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints preceding the low and its
attendant cold front.

Thunderstorms are possible from central TX/OK eastward through the
Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, as the cold front interacts with the
moderately moist and buoyant air within the warm sector. Deep-layer
vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized
storms (i.e. greater than 40 kt from 0-6 km). Latest  deterministic
runs of the ECMWF and GFS continued to show notable differences,
particularly with the overall speed of the shortwave and its
associated surface low. However, EPS and GEFS members shows greater
consistency, with numerous members placing the surface low over the
AR vicinity by D5/Sunday evening. Consequently, there is increased
confidence that the environment over the Lower MS Valley will
support severe thunderstorms D5/Sunday afternoon, with the threat
potentially continuing into the Southeast overnight.

The risk for thunderstorms will likely continue across the Southeast
on D6/Monday as this system continues eastward. Cold and dry
conditions are anticipated across the entire CONUS on D7/Tuesday and
D8/Wednesday.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2025

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