ACUS01 KWNS 010121
SWODY1
SPC AC 010119

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible
in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long
Island early this evening.

...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central
Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from
Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a
warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western
Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of
instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to
1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a
bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR
suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the
coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next
couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this
reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected
to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing
segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324.

Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis
of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken
as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening.

..Broyles.. 01/01/2025

$$

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