ACUS01 KWNS 301942
SWODY1
SPC AC 301941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest guidance continues to suggest that a swath of weak
thunderstorms will overspread the OH River Valley late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Some solutions, notably recent runs of the
HRRR and RAP, hint that a corridor of surface-based convection may
develop from northwest KY/southern IN into north-central
KY/southwest OH between 07-12 UTC along the primary surface trough.
SBCAPE/lifted indices will remain fairly limited (250-500 J/kg and
-1 to -2 C respectively) and modulate overall convective intensity;
however, 40 knot, nearly uni-directional flow within the 0-1 km
layer may promote sporadic damaging wind gusts during the pre-dawn
hours. Consideration was given for 5% wind probabilities, but the
overall convective signal in recent guidance remains too limited to
garner sufficient confidence in this potential threat.

..Moore.. 12/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/

...OH Valley tonight...
An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across
the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight.
Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL,
with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN.
Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the
deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection,
and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight
across the lower and middle OH Valley.  Forecast soundings show
impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite
weak with surface-based convection unlikely.  Thus the severe threat
is low.

$$

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