ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into
southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH Valley
northeastward into southern New England on Tuesday. An attendant
surface low will take a similar path throughout the day while
gradually occluding, reaching western NY by late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. An associated cold front is expected to push from
the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys eastward through the remainder of the OH
Valley, the TN Valley, and Southeast States. By Wednesday evening, a
surface low generated by secondary cyclogenesis at the triple point
will likely be over the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, with the
associated cold front extending from this low southwestward through
the central Carolinas, southern GA, and the western FL Peninsula.
Continued eastward progress will take this front off the East Coast
and through all but south FL by early Wednesday morning.

Limited low-level moisture and attendant buoyancy is anticipated
ahead of this shortwave and its associated cold front, precluding
thunderstorm development across much of the eastern CONUS. Some
deeper convective cores are possible along and ahead of the cold
front across the middle OH Valley Wednesday morning. A few lightning
flashes are possible, but current expectation is for overall
coverage to remain less than 10 percent. A greater risk for
thunderstorms is possible from the NC Outer Banks into southern New
England from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Here, strong
warm-air advection within the warm conveyor could result in a few
elevated storms deep enough to produce lightning.

..Mosier.. 12/30/2024

$$

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