ACUS01 KWNS 292003
SWODY1
SPC AC 292002

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage remains possible in parts of Carolinas into
southern Virginia into the early evening. A brief tornado and
isolated wind damage is also possible in the upper Ohio Valley
vicinity.

...20Z...
With continued downward trend in intensity of convection in the
Carolinas. Severe probabilities have been reduced. Recent model
trends have shown less potential for additional development in
central North Carolina/Virginia; however, given the large-scale
ascent, have opted to maintain low severe wind probabilities. More
recent model trends would suggest develop, if it occurs, may in
eastern North Carolina/Virginia.

A shortwave trough now in Missouri may spur convective development
late this afternoon in parts of western/central Kentucky into
northern Middle Tennessee. Very cold temperature aloft and lingering
upper 40s F dewpoints may allow for a stronger storm or two. Small
hail and strong wind gusts are possible. The threat appears too
conditional for severe probabilities, however.

The forecast in the upper Ohio Valley remains unchanged. Isolated
wind damage and a brief tornado remain possible with convection
along the leading edge of the upper-level trough.

..Wendt.. 12/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/

...Carolinas...
A large and negatively-tilted shortwave trough is rotating
northeastward across the TN/OH Valleys today, with intense low and
mid-level wind fields overspreading much of the eastern US.  A
pre-frontal squall line has advanced eastward into central NC and
eastern SC, well ahead of the primary surface cold front and
considerably faster than model guidance had predicted.  This line is
moving through weak instability, with very limited lightning being
observed.  Nevertheless, low-level winds and convergence along the
line are quite strong, leading to gusty and occasional damaging
winds.  This trend will continue through the afternoon across the
eastern Carolinas.

...NC/VA This Evening...
Behind this line, widespread clouds and dewpoints in the 50s will
result in continued weak thermodynamic profiles for deep convection.
 However, given the large-scale ascent and strong winds aloft, there
remains some chance of re-development of showers and occasional
thunderstorms from central NC into VA this evening.  If this
scenario unfolds, isolated damaging wind gusts could occur.

...OH/PA...
A deep surface low currently over southern IN will track into
northwest OH today, with a occluded front extending eastward from
the low across OH.  Widespread cloud cover will limit CAPE to
100-200 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the front.  However, very
strong winds aloft and large scale forcing for ascent is expected to
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This fast-moving
convection may result in locally damaging wind gusts or a brief
tornado as it affects much of OH and western PA through early
evening.

...FL Keys...
An east-west band of thunderstorms is sagging southward across the
FL Keys today.  Several areas of rotation have been noted all
morning along the line, which may pose a risk of gusty winds or
waterspout/brief tornado activity.

$$

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