ACUS11 KWNS 281715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281715=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-281815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern AR and northwestern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281715Z - 281815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large (some 2+ in) hail and damaging
gusts may persist for a few hours this morning and early this
afternoon. A more substantial severe threat is expected later today.

DISCUSSION...As of 1710 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of strong to severe storms (including a more dominant
supercell) ongoing across parts of far eastern AR. Likely elevated
above the surface north of a well-defined baroclinic zone, these
storms have produced a few reports of large hail over the past 2
hours. Keeping with general storm motion to the east/northeast at
30-35 kt, these storms should cross the MS river into northwestern
MS in the next hour. The air mass here is weakly unstable (MLCAPE
~500 J/kg), but also strongly sheared, which should continue to
support at least an isolated risk for severe hail and some damaging
gust potential for a few more hours.

A more substantial severe risk is expected to evolve later this
afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent and linear storms approach
from the west/southwest. Recent HRRR guidance and radar trends over
the ArkLaTex suggests a larger QLCS/bowing line segment may approach
and merge with this convection as the air mass across MS continues
to destabilize. This would favor a greater severe risk, particularly
for damaging gusts and tornadoes this afternoon/evening.

Thus, while there remains an isolated severe risk over the next
couple of hours, a WW is not expected until later this afternoon.

..Lyons/Hart.. 12/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4WvRCbRokbDQocOZGbAuPHCK5Xh3qnSxder_f2Cij_jk6kUGCjfgP4i9-F96B1WZrQMacjWBd=
BCfxdrgM94kXrV8nlQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34499101 33759197 33569202 33409187 33269157 33129105
            33259030 33878936 34368952 34698987 34719073 34499101=20


=3D =3D =3D
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