ACUS11 KWNS 281249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281249=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-281445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...eastern LA and southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281249Z - 281445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A long-duration severe threat may begin this morning near
and east of the Mississippi River in Louisiana/Mississippi. This
threat should remain lower-end and isolated for several hours before
greater intensity/coverage occurs this afternoon. While a tornado
watch will undoubtedly be needed later today, confidence is low on
needing one through mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across parts of
LA into southwest MS. Regenerative development may persist for many
hours in the southeast LA/southwest MS corridor where low-level warm
theta-e advection continues in the wake of long-lived,
quasistationary convection over the north-central Gulf. 12Z JAN/LCH
observed soundings sampled relatively modest low-level hodograph
curvature but favorable effective bulk shear for occasional updraft
rotation. This could yield an isolated threat for all hazards this
morning. A more prominent increase in severe potential is expected
into the afternoon, as low-level shear increases substantially
midday and beyond.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5jz-xtkkHAEDLUTiQ3B62k6d9Z9dGwfw2zCwFzEiv1EnJAqkQwibJA6IhJCP9fFG1jeZ--xc1=
AM1l8UTQz-S1JvbkW4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31409191 31829181 32059164 32359117 32439063 32409007
            32078967 31638930 31208930 30898938 30228946 30008975
            29919016 29959070 30149118 30439184 30699205 31409191=20


=3D =3D =3D
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