ACUS11 KWNS 281225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281225=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-281430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...parts of east TX to western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 281225Z - 281430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Surface-based supercell potential is expected to rapidly
increase in the late morning to midday. A tornado watch will likely
be needed by 14-15Z.

DISCUSSION...The east TX to western LA warm-moist sector
characterized by 66-71 F surface dew points has roughly reached a
TPL to 20 S CRS to IER line as of 12Z. Pervasive cloud coverage will
slow diabatic surface heating after sunrise, but the rich moisture
profile will only need a few degrees of warming to yield a marked
increase in surface-based convection. This will be favorably timed
with strengthening large-scale ascent and flow fields ahead of a
pronounced shortwave trough near central TX. 06Z ECMWF and recent
HRRR guidance suggest scattered to widespread warm-moist sector
thunderstorms will occur by midday. A strengthening kinematic
profile should foster several to numerous supercells. Tornado
potential will become more favorable with eastern extent in TX to
LA, as hodographs enlarge midday into the afternoon.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_l2Bh32XHmKKw30RxYwCFba7IyUe_L5rdp-BhuQuzSeUCIr81T-ZRAjkC_nfeWVitcBBDloex=
XDJiry0OtqvwGKrUDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30789744 31429734 32089652 32599457 32629384 32639289
            32189221 31419209 30989212 30759305 30769313 30689438
            29799642 30369727 30789744=20


=3D =3D =3D
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