AWUS01 KWNH 280123
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-280630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024

Areas affected...southern MS/AL into far western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280121Z - 280630Z

SUMMARY...A threat for training will be heightened across southern
MS into southern AL and far western FL through at least 06Z. The
potential for localized flash flooding from rainfall rates in the
1-3 in/hr range will exist.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery across the central Gulf Coast
at 0115Z showed a SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms
stretching from the southern coast of MS into central AL. A second
axis, with only a widely scattered coverage of cells, was present
from the offshore waters south of the MS/AL border into portions
of far southern AL. The environment along and southwest of a
stationary front extending through southern MS/AL contained
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 to 1.7 inch precipitable water values
(per 01Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z LIX sounding). Low level
confluent flow just above the surface was a main driver in the
ongoing axis of convection but lift within the right-entrance
region of a departing 100 kt upper level jet streak over the OH
Valley may also be contributing to ascent across the Deep South.

As a shortwave and associated jet energy continue to pull away
from the region tonight, greater synoptic lift will be weakening
but the low level confluent flow is expected to remain from far
southern MS into southern/central AL with a gradual eastward
translation with time. Instability and moisture parameters will be
supportive of 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates where cells train. Since
FFG values are fairly high (3 to 5 inches in 3 hours), the flash
flood threat should be localized in nature and likely more of an
issue if areas of training focus atop metropolitan regions, such
as Mobile and/or Pensacola. The threat for training and high
rainfall rates is expected to continue until at least 06Z tonight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!71r839v-_5o6dtr2UdHh9onJgc9ohvM9fxCJDVTYt_8v3LXApt3JgWDndezxxRnFZZol=
iUnEg7_i9-z7XwsrVrnv4E8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32348685 32208624 31688638 30998660 30228731=20
            30058834 29998926 30158951 30418953 30928893=20
            31778810 32168757=20

=3D =3D =3D
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