AWUS01 KWNH 261401
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
901 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...Northern Texas...Southeastern Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261400Z - 261930Z

SUMMARY...Warm advective wing of highly dynamic cyclogenesis
already breaking out elevated convection.  Continued increasing
moisture flux and slow instability advection to increase rainfall
rates to 1.5"/hr crossing areas of recent heavy rainfall.=20
Short-term training elements pose risk of localized possible flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...A very strong and sharp shortwave can be seen moving
out of the Texas Panhandle into western OK.  A strong digging
100kt jet parallel to the Front Range of the Rockies decelerates
sharply before rounding a slowly negatively tilting trof across
the Big country then rapidly accelerating into 100-105kt SSW jet
across the MOKSAROK placing much of northeast Texas into a very
dynamic/favorable upper-level pattern for rapid evacuation and
strengthening low level flow...as noted by transverse banded
activity across the Big Country.  Deep layer moisture has been
limited to the Gulf; but recent CIRA LPW suite denotes that the
strengthening low level jet in response to the height-falls is
advecting increasing moisture and higher theta-E across central TX
toward the region.

The nose of the MUCAPE axis has recently nudged into the area of
ascent with 500 to 750 J/kg being analyzed; and as such, recent
convective towers have been forming along the northeast edge of
the Hill country with active increasing lightning detected.=20
Strong WAA pattern from the SW through 700-500mb, indicates the
strong steering pattern; but with the low level moisture and WAA
response, redevelopment along the effective boundary slowly
lifting northeastward across N TX, will allow for some convective
elements to have a training profile.  This training/back-building
potential is likely to be the main key/driving factor to localized
flash flooding as well as crossing areas recently saturated from
prior rainfall two days ago.  NASA SPoRT 0-40cm denotes a sharp
gradient of soil saturation along I-35, becoming 50-65% saturated
toward northeast TX; however, AHPS 7 day anomaly shows those
deeper saturation may extend a county or two further west;
increasing the potential to intersect with the heavy rainfall.

Cells are likely to be a bit more moisture starved given limited
mid to upper level moisture and the training is likely to help
over come it. However, the strength of ascent and focused
convergence in banded convective lines may allow for .5"/hr to
increase to 1.5"/hr throughout the late morning into early
afternoon hours with increased moisture flux.  As such, streaks of
1-3" totals are probable through the morning with slow
northeastward expansion of the WAA.  This places the rates and
totals near or slightly above the lowered FFG values across the
area of concern into SE OK; so localized exceedance is possible
with increased potential in and around the urban DFW corridor.=20=20
As such, flash flooding is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7-lwxPQ-ppsZeC5-MLk-uR9jROzDzUapNNWF7iakQfIoO1oPbEoLcDJr0cI4ugbnYljw=
Txlo75z-qsOIWKVuiuEnTVY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34969605 34879539 34399470 33709458 32999468=20
            32499532 32069612 31599769 31689832 32309881=20
            33299863 34219764 34679693=20

=3D =3D =3D
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