ACUS03 KWNS 260844
SWODY3
SPC AC 260843

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss
and Lower Mississippi Valley.

...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley...
A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including
some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global
guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are
uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This
currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana
and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as
southeast Arkansas and far East Texas.

A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the
southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable
strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of
50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL.

Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will
probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while
potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the
northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual
areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and
Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of
early day convection are better resolved.

Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day
convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching
upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse
rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in
deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East
Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all
severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop
east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

..Guyer.. 12/26/2024

$$

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