ACUS02 KWNS 260700
SWODY2
SPC AC 260659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the
Lower Mississippi Valley Friday.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level
disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one
shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from
the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a
secondary impulse later in the day.

Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday
morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee
south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into
Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger
early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest
reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually
strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper
system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery
is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early
day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby
Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively
weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt
of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient
supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could
occur.

Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend
late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more
so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the
low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic
ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the
presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within
the cloud-bearing layer.

..Guyer.. 12/26/2024

$$

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