ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east
Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the
ArkLaTex region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning
of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively
tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains
and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a
surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into
Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies,
strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward
across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints
possibly into southern Arkansas.

...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana...
Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm
air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana
Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing
should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the
morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and
clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and
an isolated tornado threat.

Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as
the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and
greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas.
Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for
supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater
tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the
low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater
instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday
afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution
were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be
warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at
this time.

Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across
east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon
and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the
afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the
evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a
strong (EF2+ tornado).

In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening.
Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain
sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet
to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern
Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the
overnight hours.

...Pacific Northwest to California Coast...
A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of
the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will
be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears
surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft
arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm
threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is
anticipated.

..Bentley.. 12/25/2024

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux