ACUS48 KWNS 251003
SWOD48
SPC AC 251002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend
including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day
4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift
eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of
the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least
some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley
to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and
Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior
shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day
precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+
percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may
become more evident in future outlooks.

The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast
States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal
basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next
week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday.

..Guyer.. 12/25/2024

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