ACUS03 KWNS 241926
SWODY3
SPC AC 241925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across
central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the
ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will
pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s
F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly
deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the
ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be
favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon.
This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of
western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex.

...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana...
Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in
the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location
of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance
suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late
afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm
structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a
higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for
ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode
is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level
jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The
low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward
allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging
winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though
mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm
sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection.

The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by
decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to
mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization
will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana.
Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest
ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The
Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this
potential.

..Wendt.. 12/24/2024

$$

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