ACUS02 KWNS 241716
SWODY2
SPC AC 241715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave trough initially along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast
region will continue to move east on Wednesday. Model trends
continue to show this feature weakening through the day. Further,
this trough has also trended slightly southward in placement over
the past few model cycles. A secondary, stronger shortwave trough
will move through the Four Corners and reach the southern High
Plains by Thursday morning.

...Southern Louisiana...
Current observations within the Gulf show low 60s F dewpoints
offshore. Given the forecast location of the lead shortwave and
weakening mass fields during the day, these dewpoints appear more
likely to remain generally offshore, south of a weak warm front.
While a few thunderstorms appear probable during the afternoon near
the boundary, very minimal buoyancy (100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE)
suggests the potential for severe storms will remain low. Marginally
stronger storms could occur in far southeast Louisiana, where
buoyancy could be locally greater.

...West/Northwest Texas...
Forcing for ascent will increase towards Thursday morning. Mid-level
lapse rates will steepen sufficiently to support a few stronger
elevated convective cores. A few isolated lightning flashes will be
possible with this activity.

...Pacific Northwest/northern California...
With the approach of another shortwave trough late Wednesday
night/early Thursday, mid-level height falls/cooling will support
isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastline.

..Wendt.. 12/24/2024

$$

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