ACUS01 KWNS 230518
SWODY1
SPC AC 230517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A few thunderstorms are
expected over parts of the Southern Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward toward the
Upper Great Lakes today, moving into the Northeast by Tuesday
morning. To the west, an upper ridge will rapidly amplify along the
West Coast as a deep upper trough approaches late. In advance of the
amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West, weak troughiness will
develop over the Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the East, while a
weak trough develops over the southern Plains. To the west of this
surface trough, weak cold front will push south across the central
and southern High Plains, while southerly winds bring moisture
northward over central TX.

The greatest probability of general thunderstorms appears to be over
parts of TX into southern OK, during the evening and overnight.
Here, southwest 850 mb flow over 30 kt will aid moisture advection
and elevated destabilization. Weak shear and instability will
preclude any severe chances.

Elsewhere, increasing warm advection and moistening ahead of the
western trough late in the day will bring widespread precipitation
to WA, OR, and northern CA. A low chance of a few lightning flashes
will exist over northern CA, with overall coverage should remain
low.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 12/23/2024

$$

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