ACUS03 KWNS 220838
SWODY3
SPC AC 220837

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms could occur across parts of south-central and
southeast Texas on Tuesday.

...South-central/Southeast Texas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to spread eastward on
Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks. Low-level
moisture should continue to increase across the Texas coastal plain
into south-central Texas during the day. Scattered convection should
be ongoing Tuesday morning across north/northeast Texas and the
ArkLaTex vicinity, but modest diurnal destabilization should occur
ahead of a southeastward-moving effective cold front across
south-central to east/southeast Texas. A diurnally related
intensification of storms is plausible near the advancing front, and
possibly also in the free warm sector during the afternoon.

Effective shear will not be overly strong /30-35 kt/, including some
flow weakness noted in model soundings around 2-3 km AGL, but
nonetheless could be sufficient for some organized storm modes. A
few stronger/locally severe storms could occur, including the
potential for storm-related wind gusts.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough moves inland, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across northern California coastal
areas and interior valley mainly through the morning and early
afternoon, and possibly on a more isolated basis across other parts
of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer.. 12/22/2024

$$

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