ACUS03 KWNS 211918
SWODY3
SPC AC 211916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late Monday evening
into early Tuesday morning across parts of the southern Plains. A
zonal flow regime aloft over the central CONUS will maintain a weak
and elongated surface trough from the upper MS river valley into the
Plains with an attendant plume of returning low-level moisture into
central and eastern TX. Warm mid-level temperatures will limit
thunderstorm potential for much of the day, but steeper mid-level
lapse rates should accompany the arrival of a shortwave trough after
06 UTC. This upper feature will not only promote gradual
destabilization across the greater TX/OK/AR/LA region, but will help
consolidate a weak surface low along a surface trough/cold front
over central TX. The resulting low to mid-level mass response will
bolster isentropic ascent with an increase in showers/thunderstorms
within the warm advection plume.

Latest guidance suggests convection will most likely be elevated and
rooted above a veered 0-1 km wind profile. Weak deep-layer shear
within the effective layer, combined with marginal buoyancy, should
modulate convective intensity as thunderstorm coverage increases
towards 12 UTC Tuesday. Sporadic lightning flashes will also be
possible just off the FL/GA coast in the vicinity of a weak surface
low as well as along the northern CA/OR coast as another upper-level
wave moves onshore overnight Monday.

..Moore.. 12/21/2024

$$

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