From: "Phil Payne" 

> All hits on the same article written.  So what?  No one else is predicting
> anything near this dire.  This is just Phil's wet dream, so he picks up on
> it.  We will see how it plays out, but I will go with the majority and not
> the chicken littles.

Heh.  The long arm of coincidence or - deja vu all over again.

Long story last week - I got an email to say an ex-colleague had died
suddenly.  The ultimate source of the information was an Amdahl alumni
closed group on Yahoo.

Well, I subscribed.  And one fo the first posts I saw was from a guy called
Jim Skrydlak.

Back in the mid-1980s, Jim and I picked up on some work being done by Bob
Djurdjevic In Phoenix.  By 1985, Bob was solidly predicting an IBM crash by
1990.  We worked Bob's numbers, and found a few things out on our own.  We
called the analysis CDR - cash, debt and revenue. It started life as a
Borland Quattro Pro spreadsheet - we didn't have an Internet at our
disposal, so we used an Amdahl MVS system as a file transfer mechanism
between our PCs.

No one would believe us.  Everyone though IBM was utterly impregnable - the
very idea of it being in long-term financial difficulties.  But we stuck to
it.  I was catcalled off stage at a sales meeting in 1988.

Then it posted the world's largest ever corporate loss in 1Q90.  And Jim
and I got a whole lot more respect.

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