ACUS48 KWNS 190846
SWOD48
SPC AC 190845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture
will limit thunderstorm potential on Day 4/Sun. Starting Day 5/Mon,
a progressive upper level pattern is forecast, and a series of
shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains to the Midwest. As
this occurs, surface lee troughing will support south/southeasterly
low-level flow across the southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico.
Modest boundary-layer moisture will being to return northward across
TX toward OK by early next week, and eventually into the Lower MS
Valley by mid to late in the week. Large spread remains regarding
the timing and intensity of these features across the south-central
U.S. However, thunderstorm potential will begin increasing starting
Day 5/Monday across OK/TX, shifting east with time through Day
8/Thu. Some severe-thunderstorm potential could accompany this
activity, but predictability is too low at this time to include
outlook delineations at this time.

..Leitman.. 12/19/2024

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