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The total range between the best and worst prices of the day was only
about 5pts.  Volume improved a bit from the Friday holiday, but was
still down at -17% below average.  Where are the Bulls?

Greenspan spoke today about the impact of the trade deficit.  He said
this latest leg of the problem started back in 1997.  No, it's NOT all
Clinton's fault!  It's a result of the free trade policies & emphasis on
the WTO that have been common policy for even longer than that.

Thirty years ago Rockford (Rocky) Hanken, the IBM CE who maintained our
super-computers at UCLA and was working on his Master's in Economics at
USC, told me to watch for this to happen.  He said the differential in
wealth between the first and third worlds could not continue; it was
destabilizing.  Of course, we are most aware of the impact it has had on
jobs in this country.  But if you were paying attention to the news this
week, you learned that France and Germany have major problems with
employment in their countries as well.  I remember hearing from Mexican
and Southeast Asian economists that all the jobs they had in the 70's &
80's had fled to China as well.

It seems to me the point here for us, as investors, is things have been
driven internationally and economically by some fundamental assumptions
and beliefs which are either fundamentally wrong, or have run far beyond
their course of application.  Yet they are widely accepted and receive
little in the way of responsible criticism; just the irresponsible kind
from the lunatic fringes left and right.

That's the sort of situation that makes me nervous.  Invariably, when
everybody comes to believe the same thing (think of the 1999 Stock
Market Bubble), they're catastrophicly wrong.  I think we need to be
looking for the cracks in the dike, and be conservative but not
withdrawn in our investing strategies.  "Chicken Little" might make a
movie, but it doesn't make an investment strategy.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __>_     __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     11/08
 __|_     __>_     __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     11/09
 __|_     __>_     __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     11/10
 __>_     __>_     __>_     |___     __|_     __>_     11/11
 _>__     __>_     __>_     _|__     __|_     __>_     11/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Calculus: The agony and dx/dc
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