ACUS11 KWNS 180518
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180517=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern
Texas...southeastern...southwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180517Z - 180715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and
wind may persist through around 1-3 AM CST, mainly across the Red
River vicinity of northeast Texas through southeastern Oklahoma and
portions of southwestern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly intensifying in a narrow
band, generally focused along a pre-frontal confluence zone likely
to continue an eastward progression before being overtaken by the
southeastward advancing cold front later tonight.  This is being
supported by destabilization associated with moistening within
southerly return flow, largely above a residual cool and stable
boundary layer.  Near the Red River into southeastern Oklahoma, it
appears that this is becoming rooted close to the surface, aided by
near-surface thermal and moisture advection.  And there may be a
continuing window for the evolution of transient supercell
structures posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind gusts
through around 07-09Z.

..Kerr/Smith.. 12/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4QtT0JXtkQb4akIAD6kGqA8DRMJxZflvEshmiorwVQb2ovvKSB_tg9TCE6CdyRcb_-VxMPZNK=
ndjXndsZoLhQe7Nyak$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34479585 35259440 34709331 33589440 33479667 33859706
            34479585=20


=3D =3D =3D
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