ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible
through mid-day Wednesday across portions of the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing along a frontal zone from northeast
Texas to western Tennessee at the beginning of the forecast period.
These storms will likely be mostly anafrontal due to the
southeastward advancing cold front and storm motion parallel to the
front. In addition, these storms should already be in their
weakening phase by 12Z as they outrun the better low-level
instability. The only exception will be across western/middle
Tennessee between 12 and 18Z where some instability will remain and
stronger flow could promote more organization/propagation ahead of
the cold front. A damaging wind gust or a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out early in the forecast period. Despite the weakening
instability through the morning, some damaging wind threat could
persist into parts of eastern Tennessee and far southern Kentucky
through mid-day as the low-level jet strengthens to over 50 knots
during the morning hours.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...
Southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid-level trough will
establish low to mid 60s dewpoints across much of Florida into
eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas by Wednesday afternoon.
Weak to moderate instability is expected within a broad region of
weak isentropic ascent across the region. Upper-level forcing will
lag well behind the front which should keep any thunderstorm
development isolated. However, if any storms develop, they could
have some marginal hail/wind threat given moderate instability and
shear present across the region Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage
concerns related to weak forcing are the primary limiting factor to
severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2024

$$

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