ACUS02 KWNS 161717
SWODY2
SPC AC 161715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday.
Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak across the Northwest early on Tuesday will
start to dig southeast toward the central Plains and sharpen the
mid-level trough by Tuesday night. As this occurs, a weak surface
low will develop across eastern Colorado and move into the Lower
Ohio Valley by the end of the period. A surface front associated
with this area of low pressure will accelerate southeast,
particularly after 06Z and end up somewhere from Memphis to Waco by
12Z Wednesday.

...ArkLatex into central Arkansas...
Despite broad, weak isentropic ascent through the day, only isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected from east Texas into the Ozarks
due to neutral heights aloft. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase after 06Z as the mid-level trough strengthens
and approaches the southern Plains/ArkLaTex and a surface front
becomes better defined and accelerates southeast. Forecast soundings
show moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) and lapse rates
(~7 C/km) from southern Arkansas to the ArkLaTex. However, the
stronger flow will remain mostly across northern Arkansas into the
Ohio Valley. Therefore, shear will be relatively weak where
thunderstorm activity is most likely along the front from 06Z to
12Z. This will likely result in loosely organized storms which will
likely be undercut by the advancing cold front. While isolated hail
or a wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, severe weather
probabilities remain low.

...Florida...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of
the Florida Peninsula as 1200-1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops during peak
heating. Shear will be mostly less than 20 knots which should limit
storm organization. However, moderate instability and scattered to
widespread storm development could result in some small hail or
gusty winds. Overall, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2024

$$

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