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I told you so!  Haven't you been reading what I've been writing for the
last few weeks?  "There was no good reason for this move."  Well, today
the chickens all came home to roost.  Forget the headlines that blame it
all on GE & Citibank, or even Iran's seeming preparation for UN
sanctions by pulling some $30B in foreign exchange out of western banks.
They'd have been closer to right if they'd blamed the Street's delusions
of grandeur.  The Street seems to believe it could just keep expecting
business to exceed their expectations, however unfounded, with
occasional pusishments to throw the (umm, no the Street's not God!) fear
of failure into CEO's.  The Street got into some bad habits during the
"Gay 90's".  It hasn't learned to change its ways.  (That's present
tense.)  It doesn't like the way earnings have been shaping up.  GET
OVER IT!  GET REAL!

Today prices went into a straight-line free fall.  There were no sudden
intra-day shocks.  By my calculations prices closed down nearly twice
the amount of a "significant change".  Volume nearly doubled to +33%
above average.  There's no doubt this was a "Distribution Day" by any
measure.  Not to mention my timing signal said SELL!  This was a
stampede for the door.

Well, it was overdue!  I've got support lines down around 1245, 1250 or
so, and way back at 1200 and rising slowly.  That's another 15pts down.
Maybe more.  When one is watching this stuff, when one has realistic
expectations about what can and does happen, then one ought not panic
when it happens.  One ought to have strategies and tactics for dealing
with it.  And one ought NOT fall into the traps the Street is creating,
for itself and us.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___     __|_     __>_     __     01/13
 __     __|_     __|_     __     01/17
 __     __|_     __     01/18
 __     01/19
      01/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/20/06 S&P:    1261
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... IT IS documented, look under "For Internal Use Only."
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