"Anon."  wrote in message
news:bo6s1l$1tkk$1{at}darwin.ediacara.org...
> Frank Reichenbacher wrote:

> > the difference in frequency of hits of the nail and the pin are both
> > near zero and you said it's not true(?). Mine is a true statement.
> What you wrote was:
>   "The difference in the frequency of hits (probably
>     near zero in both cases) is insignificant."
> And I was pointing out that the difference was not insignificant.

In the context of Churchill's statement ("The size of the sea is so vast
...."), Frank's initial point (agreement with Churchill) was correct, and his
analogy was a basically valid, simple and useful illustration.  Churchill
was suggesting that the difference between ship and convoy sizes is
*effectively irrelevant* when compared to the (very roughly) 6 to 8 million
square mile area in which they sailed (of a total ~12M sq. mi.).  Yes,
there's a difference, but it "shinks in comparison almost to
insignificance".  I'll also note that the relative sizes in the
ocean/convoy/ship vs. the dartboard/nail/pin analogy should mean the
submarine would have far fewer sightings than the dart would have hits.

I also find it interesting just how easy it was for U-boats to sink hundreds
of ships just off the US coast in the "pre-convoy" days of the war, but how
much harder it was for the Germans later on, even with a far larger
submarine fleet (admittedly, there were a variety of factors at play here).
Regards, Brett.
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