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Prices were none too stable, but above the line all morning.  At noon
the Philly Fed released it's data, and prices took an immediate hit.
Volume increased to +11% above average.

Although I didn't get a chance to look at the intraday chart with
volume, I'd be willing to bet the heavier volume came during the sell-
off.  What's clear is the Street didn't like what it saw--prices were
based on a more optimistic view than the real data showed.  And the real
data hasn't factored in a Katrina Effect, just gas prices.

So, we've got the 200-day average just below 1200.  The short term 20- &
50-day averages are just a little below current prices--but there's
little evidence of "bargain hunting".  The market doesn't seem to want
to just go into a good correction, get all the pessimism over and go on
from there.  What should an active, anxious investor do now?

How about "nothing", if by doing anything means taking a position and
buying something.  Protect oneself, always protect oneself.  With so
little optimism apparent on the Street, I'd be predisposed to take
profits rather than leave money at risk "on the table".  Stuff I "had
hopes for" would be long gone.  Something "running", I'd let
run but not
turn around.  I'd be all too willing to watch carefully and hypothesize,
actively waiting for November, and the better year-end markets that
traditionally come.  If things do go south for the winter, well, "long
green" will be good to hold.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _>__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     09/09
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     09/12
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _     09/13
 ___     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     09/14
 ___     _<__     ___|     09/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

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