ACUS03 KWNS 131931
SWODY3
SPC AC 131930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday
morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early
Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across
the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase
moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks.

Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm
development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day
Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop
until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this
late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the
sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a
sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe
weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas,
southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z
Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the
outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing
preclude a marginal risk at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2024

$$

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