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The market went up strongly today.  The price change was 120% of the
13pts it takes to be significant.  Volume was +24% above average.  That
makes it an "accumulation" day by my formula.

According to the news there were several reasons for the market to go up
today.  One of them I might even believe.  Oil prices closed down a
quarter.  But that wasn't until mid-afternoon.  GDP numbers came out for
Q4, at a modest but still respectable 4.8%.  But that was for last
year's Q4--October, November, & December.  The market is looking forward
6-9 months, so "that was then, this is now."   The one that I believe is
at least partially relevant is the "over-sold" condition of the market.
We've been going down for over 3 weeks, 60pts.

HOWEVER:  (You should have expected that.)  Yesterday over 2.2B shares
traded when the market fell.  Today just under 2.1B shares traded on a
rising market.  More shares sold in a negative mood than were bought in
a positive mood.  The other thing is there was huge volume, 150Ms,
traded during the last 15 minutes at the peak of the market.  Only the
Street can move that much stock that quickly.  We don't know what they
were doing, but "selling into strength" makes just as much sense to me
as "bargain hunting".

I think the "analysts" were on the spot to "explain"
why the market
rose, so they invented explanations.  They're good at that, it happens
every day.  "The public wants to know!"  Sorry, in this game that
information is a tactical secret.  The best we can do is infer, then
keep looking for confirmations.

I still don't see evidence that the twin deficits have been controlled,
and I know interest rates are going to continue to rise.  I wouldn't be
getting bullish until I saw some improvement there.  But if I had to
pick an excuse for the market to turn here it might be this.  I've had a
resistance & support line drawn on my charts at 1160 since January 2004.
Twice this year we've come down to the 1165 level.  That's called a
"double bottom" by technicians, and they think it's a positive signal.
Well, maybe.  This is just the first day up.  If this works, I'd expect
it's still a short term thing until the long term problems improve.  I'd
say 1214 would be the relevant "resistance line".

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     03/23
 __     _|__     __>_     <___     __<_     03/24
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/28
 _|__     __>_     _|__     ___>     |___     __<_     03/29
 ___>     __>_     _|__     ___>     _>__     __<_     03/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Remember-- EVIAN is NAIVE spelled backwards!
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