ACUS11 KWNS 111644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111643=20
FLZ000-111815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111643Z - 111815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado cannot be
ruled out this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is rapidly approaching the FL
Peninsula, preceded by a loosely organized QLCS. These storms are
approaching a gradually destabilizing airmass, where surface
temperatures are exceeding 80 F amid 70 F dewpoints (supporting 1500
J/kg MLCAPE). While deep-layer shear and some low-level shear also
precedes the line, deep-layer ascent will continue to drift away
from FL, so shear should gradually weaken through the day. However,
a brief window of opportunity may exist for the buoyancy/shear
parameter space to briefly coincide to support a couple of damaging
gusts or a tornado with the stronger updrafts. Nonetheless, the
severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4f7ivgbkTfYamFx4Vi1QMCl_UwjEn0lavS2l5hxalg4Jhymg06CQAlmyYW-b5_NfLAqscvNCs=
YY53VIRQsmmPiByqlM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27538263 29258190 29798153 29758127 29348096 28538062
            27948052 27618066 26808114 26468147 26328187 26638220
            27538263=20


=3D =3D =3D
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