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I didn't think yesterday's rally meant much.  Today it wasn't bad till
lunch, then it all fell apart.  The release of the Fed's "Beige Book"
didn't help at all.  It says we've got problems.  Sec'y Snow seems to
think everything's just fine, and it would be finer if Congress would
just pass all the President's proposals.  You can't fix a problem a
problem you don't recognize.  The Street never listens to him anyway.
He's powerless to jaw-bone investors.

At the close, prices were down 20% more than enough to be significant,
and volume rose modestly to +15% above average.  My formula calls it a
"distribution" day, and it seems to me a much stronger signal than
yesterday's "accumulation" on falling volume.  Yesterday prices came
back up to the 200-day Moving Average and were turned away today.  That
makes it appear to be a "resistance" line--and that's a very bad signal.

You ARE using protection, aren't you?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _     _<__     __|_     04/14
 __     _|__     ___>     <___     _|__     04/15
 ____     _|__     __>_     _<__     _|__     04/18
 ____     _|__     __>_     _|__     _<__     04/19
 _     _|__     __>_     _>__     _<__     04/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/08/05 S&P:    1181
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... God is real, unless declared integer.
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